Between 1900 and today, we had the spanish flu. World Wars I and II. The invention of nuclear weapons and the cold war. The invention of dirty bombs. The invention of bioweapons. An exploding polulation that was outstripping our ability to produce food. Several worldwide economic crises.
And yet, over the long term, life expectancy continued increasing. Are there some things going on that are bullshit right now? Yes. But things were also bullshit during the Cuban missile crisis. The fact is, even the looniest loonies tend to have a few other people in the room with them who realize that they do not want to start a catastrophic world ending event. And there are a great many people who are actively working on preventing all the possible bullshit we are worried about right now. Sure, humanity consistently falls short of our potential - but we also tend to work really hard right at the last moment to at least be good enough.
Should we expect human lifespan to double again in the next 100 years? Probably not - but that is because things right now are already amazing. With the exception of the last few years at the end of peoples lives, which are typically fairly low quality anyway, most people in developed nations can expect to live into old age if they are born at all. Infant and child mortality, death from physical trauma and disease, death from violence, and death from hunger have all PLUMMETED in the last hundred years due to improved science, technology, and supply chains. The only reason we should not expect contunued big increases in worldwide life expectancy is because so many people are already hitting their maximum natural age limit.
And we should expect this trend to continue even if we have a real pandemic or another world war or runaway climate change, for the simple reason that even if we experienced a truly apocalyptic catastrophe, the survivors would remember what we had. Even without any actual documentation of how it worked, they would remember we had electricity and safe homes and abundant agricultural output and worldwide supply lines and cheap, fast transportation and computers and advanced medical technology and peace, and the simple fact that they would know it is possible would massively amplify the speed at which they could recreate our current world.
Doomer bullshit.
Between 1900 and today, we had the spanish flu. World Wars I and II. The invention of nuclear weapons and the cold war. The invention of dirty bombs. The invention of bioweapons. An exploding polulation that was outstripping our ability to produce food. Several worldwide economic crises.
And yet, over the long term, life expectancy continued increasing. Are there some things going on that are bullshit right now? Yes. But things were also bullshit during the Cuban missile crisis. The fact is, even the looniest loonies tend to have a few other people in the room with them who realize that they do not want to start a catastrophic world ending event. And there are a great many people who are actively working on preventing all the possible bullshit we are worried about right now. Sure, humanity consistently falls short of our potential - but we also tend to work really hard right at the last moment to at least be good enough.
Should we expect human lifespan to double again in the next 100 years? Probably not - but that is because things right now are already amazing. With the exception of the last few years at the end of peoples lives, which are typically fairly low quality anyway, most people in developed nations can expect to live into old age if they are born at all. Infant and child mortality, death from physical trauma and disease, death from violence, and death from hunger have all PLUMMETED in the last hundred years due to improved science, technology, and supply chains. The only reason we should not expect contunued big increases in worldwide life expectancy is because so many people are already hitting their maximum natural age limit.
And we should expect this trend to continue even if we have a real pandemic or another world war or runaway climate change, for the simple reason that even if we experienced a truly apocalyptic catastrophe, the survivors would remember what we had. Even without any actual documentation of how it worked, they would remember we had electricity and safe homes and abundant agricultural output and worldwide supply lines and cheap, fast transportation and computers and advanced medical technology and peace, and the simple fact that they would know it is possible would massively amplify the speed at which they could recreate our current world.