• 7 Posts
  • 240 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Oh absolutely, sunk cost fallacy is a problem. No disagreement there.

    However, my point is cancelling a project doesn’t remove the need. We need better public transport, we need ferries, we need infrastructure upgrades. All of these things need to happen, and the longer they are put off usually the more they will cost. So it’s not so simple as a sunk cost, as cancelling a project then doing it again later may very well end up costing more in the long run than the over run cost of the initial project. Case in point, the ferries.

    I will admit, though, I know less about the wellington light rail project. I was under the impression that a lot of the cost being spent was paying for land that was needed for the project, but you can probably inform me more about this. I’ll just say, rail is still needed (or some form of mass transit system).


  • Infrastructure is expensive, and often goes over budget. It is hard to deliver large projects on time and on budget. Any builder will tell you how often a simple house build goes over time and budget.

    Crying about incompetency is silly when the alternative seems to be to throw away money that has been spent for no gain. We have lost all the money spent on the ferries, plus a penalty, for no fucking gain at all. All the money spent working on ALR has been flushed down the toilet. It’s fucking insanity.

    The answer is not throwing away projects because they cost more than anticipated, it is finishing projects and figuring out how to do it better next time. New Zealand has seriously terrible infrastructure problems and they can only be solved with money, and a lot of it.









  • Look again. I’m not talking about light vehicles.

    A BEV truck can weigh up to 5 tons more than a FCEV. Why would that not be a case use for hydrogen? Now scale up to a ship where volume is no issue. BEV shipping is a non-starter.

    New battery tech is fantastic. But why would you assume new battery tech, currently prohibitively expensive, will come down with scale but hydrogen won’t?


  • Ammonia is significantly more harmful in the event of a leak. Yes, it’s more hydrogen dense than pure liquid hydrogen.

    Ultimately I don’t see a reason to dismiss hydrogen like some are doing. Is it the perfect solution in all cases? Of course not. Does that mean it is not a viable fuel source for transport? Absolutely not.

    Scale solves most problems. Hydrogen also has other uses, such as steel production, which further increases the scale.

    For light vehicles batter EV is likely to be the leading type for some time, as volume is more of an issue then weight for the ranges we need.


  • That’s not entirely true. If you are purely looking at $/kWh then yes, of course this is the case. However that is not the only consideration when it comes to transport. Weight of the drive unit, use of rare earth metals, lifespan of the drive unit, energy density by weight, speed of recharge, ease of transport energy, and more are all considerations.

    I’m not arguing that vehicles will become hydrogen electric. I agree they are not suitable without some serious technological advances. What I’m saying is that at a certain point, larger vehicles (trucks, trains, ships, even aeroplanes) will become more suitable to hydrogen.