Iowa itself is a lost cause. It’s 75% Republican here. We’re gerrymandered to high hell, so even if Baccam squeaks through, Iowa state legislature won’t look very blue. If it’s 60/40 Republican I’d be absolutely shocked.
But contributing one Senator nationally would be pretty neat.
If Harris gets Iowa the race is over. These races are not truly independent - they are correlated. If Harris picks up Iowa, there’s a very good chance that means she’s swept every swing state.
Right - I just mean literally any attempt to try and cater to a specific group is gonna be like this.
Both campaigns go after different groups. I just think literally anything that is contained in these are going to sound racist.
In a less charged example, both candidates try and appeal to women. Those could be viewed as sexist.
To be fair… When the article’s opening line is “In outreach to Black Men”, it doesn’t really matter what you put after. It’s going to sound bad.
It can be both things.
There are no definitive data points that should lead anyone to believe that either candidate has a significant advantage.
I’m not sure anyone who is well versed in election projections or polling would say anything other than it’s a toss up. As a heavy consumer of said data and reporting, I haven’t seen anything to the contrary.
You’re not wrong about media incentives, but they’re also not wrong that this is a very close race.
… What?
Is this some weird “victim mentality” thing?
People love to use it because it got popular and grew to mean more than the original definition to the point where it just got generic to encompass a wide range of things. It’s the same as cringe.
I thought the same thing. People are obsessed with the word gaslighting.
This seems more like textbook hypocrisy. Person doing thing talks about the harms of others doing that thing.
I mean generally it’s all correlated. It’s not perfect, but typically a 2-3 point national poll lead is close to an electoral college tie.
This is the dumbest shit and we need to fucking grow up a bit. These “questions” are asinine and not that hard to explain.
Not denying the incident was reported, but there’s a heavy insinuation here that this was set up or manufactured. If so… They needed an entire Secret Service detail, local event police and everyone standing by to be in on it. A couple hundred people are going to be involved and no one leaks it?
“Supposed” gunman. I like how you pivot from “this is probably set up” to “ok even if it was real Trump is capable of worse”
Again, the insinuation of an inside job here. We’re going to involve a hundred or more people and no one thought it would be a problem to kill a bystander? Or the gunman was so good he killed a specific plant? And they had a 100% success rate… No one heard the plan and thought “oh this is a bad idea” and spoke out about it?
Big difference between deleting text messages and MURDERING AN AMERICAN to further a political agenda.
Yes. Things happen all the time. Trump people are saying this is to distract from Biden being inept. There’s always a convenient time.
Yes you dumbshit he was concerned about his hat because they already had the all clear. The shooter got taken out in seconds. They wouldn’t have moved Trump. And they all were saying it was all clear. Also have you ever seen people in an absolute panic? Not the most rational state. Same thing with his shoes. That’s ALSO why he took the photo op. They all dove on top of him. They figured out the shooter’s location and took him down before Trump even got up.
There’s pictures of the fucking bullet in flight. So either that was ALSO manufactured (a member of the press willingly heard the plan ahead of time and doctored a photo or they actually shot a bullet inches away from Trumps head AND captured it). But no let’s just get Trump, a bumbly ass fuck to orchestrate this perfectly. I’m sure he had it a planned to go down, and everyone covered him and he pulled out a razor blade, cut his ear, and put it away, all perfectly executed and no one caught anything on camera from any of the dozens of angles.
This shit is so fucking stupid and I’m so sick of hearing about it. These points all rely on the most ass backwards way of thinking where dozens of people are in on this conspiracy and relies on all of them bring cool with killing someone to make it good for Trump.
Get this shit outta here. This doesn’t deserve the pixels on the screen used to illuminate this nonsense. Be a fucking grown up. We’re going to have to figure out a real way to beat Trump, not pretend this was some false flag bullshit. Accept reality. Be a goddamn adult.
I’m not even saying you’re wrong for questioning, but I am saying you are wrong because the sheer volume of things that would need to occur for this theory to be even remotely possible is so ridiculous, I would consider aliens an equally plausible situation.
This comment says it better than I could. The debate was a disaster for Biden. Which sucks.
ITT: People not understanding probabilistic forecasts.
Nate Silvers models are not perfect, but pretty close. You can do retro analysis on them to see. If someone with a 5% chance to win actually does win, that doesn’t mean the model was wrong… That just needs to actually happen only 5% of the time.
Getting elections"wrong" as people are talking about here shows they don’t really know how these models work. If you haven’t looked at the retrospective analysis on these results, then you are likely unqualified to declare that they are useless or wrong.
Saying polls are garbage is a straight bad take. The differentiation between polls is immense, and people treat them like they are just one thing.
They do adjust, and if you don’t know that I’m not likely to believe you have the knowledge to say they are bad.
Polls are still very indicative. Democrats are not magically beating them by 9 points. That’s just flatly untrue, unless you are just rolling every poll together with no regard for methodology, funding source, sample size, or track record.
Starting with a declaimer of being fairly far left…
Biden is not looking like he has a winning chance. He’s barely leading in national polls, but those polls are misleading, as, because of the senate, democrats typically need to win by 2.5-3 points in order to have a shot at the electoral college. So he’s behind there.
He’s behind in several key states where he needs to win. If you count states where he’s down 2 points or less, he BARELY has enough to win. Can’t miss a single state.
The debate hurt Biden. This is not a logical contest, it’s a popularity one, and Biden is not doing well. I think he’s done some great policy things, but that’s not how people vote. Democrats have to learn that it’s not enough to be “right” if you’re going to lose elections.
Mountain Goats right?
I’m never sure how to approach crypto on these platforms, because it’s rare to get a nuanced take.
I’ve moved past bitcoin to ethereum, I think it answers a lot of the criticisms.
I try not to get caught up on whether or not it’s a currency, store of value, or most other definitions. I just approach it from, is it a good product?
I’m in the middle on things such as money laundering or criminal activity. On one hand, the ledger system makes it incredibly easy to trace back transactions if someone ever messes up. On the other it serves a similar function as cash except you don’t have the physical weight, which is non trivial to transport. I know some criminals have to have used it successfully.
Crypto is hard. There’s so many goddamn scams and stuff like NFTs that could be a good idea if they got the weight of enforcement, but there’s no real enforcement mechanism. We have silly slips of paper that say whether we own things, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say we could make them digital with the right implementation. But those silly slips of paper hold the weight of law behind the. NFTs have no one to enforce anything, thus are useless.
I’m always afraid to open this up on this platform because there’s so many non nuanced takes, and people writing just the same criticisms. I’m hoping to have a good discussion, and I’m open to other opinions on it. But I haven’t found an argument that makes me think Ethereum is a problem or something to avoid. It’s certainly risky, but I think that risk is justified to the level of which I hold it.
They’re not perfect, but they’re not complete bullshit.
I can’t explain it all in a comment, but, like most things, there are good polls and bad polls. Saying polls are bullshit is like saying car mechanics are incompetent because some of them are.
If you read up on polls and their methodology, and read more then headlines, you can start to discern good ones from bad ones.
Most people don’t realize margin of error and how close elections are. There hasn’t been that large of polling errors in the last several elections. 2016 was larger than normal, but still within pretty explainable ranges.
Good polls are worth paying attention to, and proclaiming they are all bullshit is just a flatly bad take. There are a lot of shit polls that are politically motivated to make candidates look good or bad, but there are good pollsters doing good work. But you have to know what to look for. Not all polls are equal.
Not a lawyer, but I really doubt it. As has been used before, his lawyers can argue that he really does believe he’s being treated unfairly, so of course he would speak out. Or the route that it’s protected political speech meant to rile up his base. I mean if January 6th wasn’t stochastic terrorism, it leaves space for this kind of thing.
I don’t like Trump either, but anything legal around speech is pretty difficult. I’m quite shocked the Carroll case actually landed against Trump, but you can see how egregious it had to be. He’s talked about jailing all kinds of political people for all kinds of reasons. If you don’t do something the first time, then it can be used as justification that he’s not doing anything different. Is it a shitty argument? Sure. But in court, it’s effective.
I agree… Trump also has a superpower of gathering attention. The dude loves it even when it’s all bad. It’s a massive gift to Republicans because they can do crazy shit but Trump takes all the air time.
Trump is very skilled at absolutely wrenching attention away from everything else, even if he looks like a baffoon. Haley does not have that gene.
Corruption, demeanor, and leadership.
She doesn’t have dozens of lawsuits, she’s not a loose cannon who will say anything at any moment (I can only imagine how awful Trump is in meetings with foreign leaders, and his lawyers don’t even let him speak in court because he’ll get himself in even more trouble), and she can get people around her to believe in things more than her own selfish means.
I get that you wanted policies, but things like this are important too. Haley wouldn’t be headlining every day with some dumb shit she said on Twitter.
I feel oddly like I’m defending Haley… I’m not. Her border policies suck, she’ll seek to pardon Trump if elected, and I don’t see her doing shit on gun control either. Economically she’ll do the same as Republicans in that she’ll grossly underfund programs and then use their underfunding as justification for closing them, and do nothing to help the average person with tax breaks (those are for companies and upper class only).
I hear you in terms of her policies being shit, but calling the worst President in our lifetime the same as a below-average Republican candidate is just equivocating and makes people less likely to hear what you have to say. There’s a lot of Republicans who are sick of Trump and do believe he’s a threat to Democracy, but when they hear that people think Haley and Trump are the same, it reinforces Trumps worst messages.
Ah yes. Great. We’re the election conspiracy theorists now. It’s apparently democrats turn to make completely baseless accusations.
This stuff is exhausting. We want to look for every reason except for the one that matters: Democrats lost America. We need to break the party apart and start over.
Every other excuse just delays and distracts. Democrats fucked it. We can be all high and righteous as we want, but we lost 2 of 3 to Donald Trump.
Face the reality. Democrats need to reinvent themselves or they will lose to shit candidates like Trump.