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Cake day: September 27th, 2023

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  • So the last one there–whether or not it’s a moral idea, it’s important to remember that Trump was shot. Eleven months ago today, actually. It did nothing to stop this, and it did nothing to slow down his followers. Now, I don’t think that it particularly galvanized them, like some people say; but I also don’t think it did anything to remind him of his own mortality. To the contrary: he talked about his survival as if it were the will of God.

    In February of 2001, the White House was shot at while Bush II was inside. Everything in the next seven years happened anyway. It doesn’t seem to have made him any more receptive to the will or displeasure of the people.

    In 1994, something similar happened while Clinton was in the White House. He still served two terms, and not much seems to have changed about his demeanor or policies.

    Ronald Reagan was shot at and hit in 1981, but it took the nuclear near miss in 1983 for him to de-escalate his rhetoric.

    The attempted assassination of Nixon in February of 1974 doesn’t seem to have done anything to speed up his resignation that August.

    For that matter, the successful assassination of JFK didn’t stop Johnson from handling Vietnam so poorly, and didn’t stop Nixon from being Nixon to begin with.

    So I’m frankly doubtful that assassination attempts–successful or otherwise–are at all effective in giving politicians any feeling of mortality.






  • Honestly, we’re in such uncharted waters that I couldn’t venture to guess. It may well be that Trump will be so unpopular in 2028, and his anointed replacement so uninspiring, that the MAGA demonic pact breaks. This has precedent; pretty much nobody who tries Trump’s tricks in anywhere but the deepest of red areas gets any traction. It seems like it might only work for him.

    Then again, it’s also entirely possible that he comes out of this whole thing smelling like roses (I can’t even venture a shred of a guess as to how, but he’s weathered some really unpopular press, so who knows) and so whoever he puts his political weight behind goes the distance. In that case, especially if his replacement is a “moderate” MAGA (the Overton Window is stupid far right at this point), I think Newsom gets absolutely trounced in 28.

    All of this assumes that Trump doesn’t succumb to his clogging arteries, that he doesn’t have Newsom killed, that he doesn’t “cancel” the 2028 election altogether because of “something something rigged something something,” that he doesn’t actually just get himself back on the ticket again, that the Dems don’t win a supermajority in 2026 and give him the heave-ho…a whole lot of things can happen between now and then.