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Cake day: September 13th, 2023

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  • I agree with your take on the old 538 model, but if you read Nate’s new substack it become pretty clear that he’s been ‘captured’. Almost all of his post seem to fairly anti-Harris in their biases and it feels like all of his writings are really meant for one person, that person being the owner of Polymarket who he has a very large consulting contract. What these biases are doing to the Model I don’t know but the new model at 538 which was built from the ground up by other statisticians consistently trends about 10-20% higher odds for Harris taking the election.




  • It was less about the studio meddling and a bit more about the people who were involved weren’t in awe of George. His, at the time, wife was the editor on the first movie and she made a lot of changes in the editing bay to improve what was a bit of a mess they say. And don’t discount the amount of rewrites done on the fly by the cast. Carrie was taking everyone scripts and punching them a lot and she went on to become one of best punch up writers in Hollywood. Even Harrison Ford, a notoriously shy and conflict avoidant guy, was improvising his lines because he knew that Han wouldn’t say “I love you, too” even facing being frozen in Carbonite.