My bet since this clusterfuck started has been on option #4, which is that the House careens Speaker-less into another shutdown.

This happens not just in politics, but everywhere. When it comes down to a staredown between stubborn hardliners and moderates on any given subject, the moderates tend to blink first.

This is why it’s important to be extreme in the other direction, or even possibly deliberately pretending to be more extreme than you actually are: because moderates (read: mainstream Democrats) are incapable of dragging the Overton Window back from the brink.