Few political violence researchers believe there will be a repeat of the Jan. 6 attack. Instead, many warn that election-related violence is more likely to happen in local communities.

As Election Day nears, uncertainty remains high over almost every aspect of the presidential race. In swing states, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Harris continue to poll closely. There have been two attempted assassinations against Trump. But many researchers and conflict mitigation practitioners are concerned that the possibility of political violence in the coming weeks and months may be more certain than it has in any recent election.

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Among the worrying scenarios that organizations are planning for is one where Trump again loses and refuses to concede. Few, however, believe there will be a repeat of the January 6th attack at the U.S. Capitol. Instead, many say there may be organized efforts to interfere with state certification processes or local vote tallying efforts.

“It might be more diffuse, in lots of places across the country, which, in many respects, actually heightens the threat,” said Pete Simi, a professor of sociology at Chapman University.