Summary
The recent U.S. election saw a significant Democratic underperformance, with Kamala Harris drawing 1.4 million fewer votes than Joe Biden in 2020, while Donald Trump gained 1.1 million additional votes.
Nationally, Democrats lost more votes than Republicans gained, but in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, Trump’s gains outpaced Harris’s losses, securing his victory.
In many counties, Democratic votes dropped sharply even where Republican gains were modest.
Higher turnout in swing states, driven by Trump supporters, was a crucial factor in his win.
In a way Trump’s vote stayed flat too. He didn’t get that many votes more than last time. Meaning he does have a hard ceiling. Problem was that Harris received less votes in certain segments than Biden, mostly men.
I don’t think so. The total number of votes didn’t change much, but it isn’t like the exact same people from 2020 came out for him again. He made massive gains in black and Hispanic voters, for example, so his base isn’t necessarily capped yet.
In 2020, Biden received 81,284,666 votes, Trump 74,224,319.
Last Tuesday Harris received 69,119,332 votes, Trump 73,461,159.
But if you look at the swing states that resulted in her loss, MI, WI, PA the votes are comparable to 2020.
(Votes in millions) MI: 2.80 Trump - 2.72 Harris vs 2.65 Trump vs 2.80 Biden WI: 1.70 Trump - 1.67 Harris vs 1.61 Trump vs 1.63 Biden PA: 3.51 trump - 3.44 Harris vs 3.38 Trump vs 3.46 Biden
Yes, Harris got generally fewer votes (Though not in WI). If Trump performed exactly as he did in 2020, Harris would have won. Trump did better. More people said “yes I want Trump” or more people turned out to vote to make sure it was “too big to steal”
If those numbers are “trumps votes stayed flat too” then, Harris receiving a similar number of votes to Biden in 2020 is flat too, right?
Like yeah there was an enthusiasm gap that seems pretty clear from the popular vote. But if you just look at the must win states it wasn’t as far as what the nationwide popular vote would sugget. I think the safest conclusion to draw is Repubs were more energized to beat the fictional steal, and for some asinine reason some anti-trump voters went “…eh…Harris isn’t good enough for my vote so we’ll risk a fascist winning.”
Yeah trump did better with young men, but I don’t like % point comparisons like they show. If dem voters don’t show up, it appears like Trump “wins”. There were definitely articles where it was clearly he was picking up iconically reliable blue votes - Black and Latinos specifically. I think it’s more just that people are hurting. The economy sucks for them and has for the past 12+ years. Even considering increased wages, it’s still costing ridiculous more to exist.
The only shot the Dems had of not having that around their neck is an actually open primary. Biden needed to stick to what he said he was going to be - a bridge to the next generation. But he didn’t. And then hung on top long where the only logical step with three months to go was Kamala. Even if a snap primary on all 50 states could happen again in a month, all the headlines would be “DEMS SKIP OVER CLEARLY QUALIFIED BLACK WOMAN -ARE THEY RACIST?”
Politics is messy. Dems needed a dem candidate. They’ve asininely let Republicans become the agents of change. The people that will shake things up. Fight the establishment. And it doesn’t matter they don’t actually do that, most voters are low info. The Democratic party needs to get people back on the picket line. Fight more. Go after business more. Swing for the fences and lose. Propose a negative income tax bracket. Yeah it’s more conservative bullshit from the Reagan era, but it’s a decent fucking alternative to UBI which doesn’t have the broad appeal.
And it doesn’t matter they don’t actually do that, most voters are low info.
But, apparently, they will do that more than Dems. But just a bit.
There were definitely articles where it was clearly he was picking up iconically reliable blue votes - Black and Latinos specifically. I think it’s more just that people are hurting. The economy sucks for them and has for the past 12+ years.
People also don’t like educated well-off white liberals graciously descending to ask for their lowly votes, to bring these poor bastards to some democratic heaven, but that’s not certain. A lot of those people are, ahem, still kinda Christian and still kinda conservative, like second generation immigrants from Catholic Latin American countries. In any case this kind of condescending attitude tends to be unpopular. Especially when those promises haven’t been fulfilled in the past.
There are still millions of uncounted votes in CA. Trump has gone from 72.6 million yesterday morning to 73.4 million today. Y’all really need to stop quoting these numbers as if they’re anything but preliminary.
edit: Knee-jerk downvoting of a factual correction. Class act right here. Screen shot for those who have poor vision and/or analytical reasoning skills…
edit 2: Up to 74.8 million Trump votes and 71.2 million Harris votes now, and counting.
There are 93,000 uncounted votes in Calfornia today. Hardly a spit in the ocean to this point.
2.5 million additional votes since this lovely chat, just for everyone’s edification. Ain’t math fun!!!
But. That doest matter, for those that dislike rabbit hole arguements.
…but prefer factual accuracy.
It’s way more than 93,000.
Running from the Google results page that quotes the AP:
58% reporting
Kamala Harris 57.6% 6,108,150 votes
Donald Trump 39.8% 4,216,520 votes
Robert Kennedy 1.1% 116,628 votes
Jill Stein 0.8% 87,842 votes
Chase Oliver 0.4% 39,805 votes
Claudia De la Cruz 0.4% 37,673 votesSo, adding that all up, this 58% is 10,606,618 votes.
So 58/10,606,618 vs 100/x Solve for x.
10,606,618 x 100 / 58 = Around 18,287,272 votes total.
Meaning about 7,680,654 votes still to count.
Which is still meaningless to the point. But, thanks for your input.
Still can’t admit you were wrong?
That’s exactly the same link I just provided for you. Are you trolling?
Goddamn
Oh he does, he does.
We can’t out trump trump.
His voters might answer a poll that they like the Dem agrees with trump now, but they’ll never vote D.
Chasing them just pisses off actual Dem voters, which leads to them not voting.
It’s literally the same as Charlie Brown trying to kick that fucking football. Except in this case our lives hinge on making a fucking field goal, and someone pays Charlie Brown to keep letting Lucy hold the ball and pretending to be surprised.
I have yet to get a positive on this…Does anyone know anyone that sat this election out personally? I’m not judging, I just want to hear someone say yes.
Yep, talked to an old coworker from GA the day before. Got “neither party will help me”. Doesn’t take the threat from Trump seriously. I won’t be talking to that person again.
Thanks…see my comment above.
I kept getting the internet stories regurgitated at me rather than first hand knowledge. It’s statistically unlikely out of the 50-100 Democrats I know, none of them sat this out. It’s 1 in 7 by last count, I should know someone…
Anyway, thanks for proving me wrong.
The biggest and most painful lesson I’ve learned this week is that the average American is a bad person, even within my friends and family. Being a decent human being in America is an exception. They knew and didn’t care. The ones who sat out and the ones who voted for this truly deserve all the pain coming their way.
It seems really localized. My county had almost 80% of registered voters vote, which seems crazy high to me.
Yes a few of my male friends did. One was typical genx “meh” and the others just hated Kamala because she’s a woman. Honestly it’s disgusting.
Thanks. Ok…I guess we did sit this one out. I was hoping I could bank on election fraud over the US being a giant turd of indifference…but alas.
Yep, although he was gonna vote for Trump, so…
I don’t fucking care. My god, I just. Don’t. Care.
